July 30, 2025
Heading into today’s Fed decision, U.S. equity markets were trading higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by as much as 340 points earlier in the session. Treasury yields moved lower ahead of the announcement, with the 10-year yield touching 4.38% before partially reversing course following the release of the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Stocks gave back those early gains and finished lower by 0.47% as markets digested the updated guidance.
Randy Hare, Director of Equity Strategy, shares the team’s perspective on today’s market action:
- National economic data remains soft. “Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year,” officials said in a post-meeting statement.
- Labor market shows signs of cooling. The latest jobless claims and payroll data suggest that labor market tightness is beginning to ease. Wage growth has moderated, and job openings have declined for the third consecutive month. While employment levels remain historically strong, the data adds to evidence that the Fed’s tightening cycle is gradually filtering through to the job market.
- Tariff concerns add uncertainty to the inflation outlook. During today’s press conference, Chair Powell acknowledged that recently imposed tariffs could complicate the path for inflation in the months ahead. While the Fed remains committed to its 2% target, officials are closely monitoring how higher import costs may filter through to consumer prices. The potential for tariff-related inflation adds another layer of uncertainty to the timing and pace of future rate cuts.
Our Perspective:
We remain focused on protecting our customers and communities. Like the Fed, our Chief Investment Office sees elevated uncertainty in the economic and market outlook. We continue to recommend a balanced and diversified investment approach, grounded in long-term objectives rather than short-term noise. If you are concerned about your investment portfolio or any other part of your financial life, please reach out to your Huntington team. We are all here to help.
