Weekly Market Commentary

Stay up-to-date on markets and the economy with our latest weekly commentary report.

Read Time: 5 Min

July 11, 2025

Worldwide Headlines

  1. Tariff Talk conversations heats-up again throughout the week. The tariff talk resumed in the national narrative in several ways this week. Firstly, the President announced that ‘reciprocal’ tariff rates will be administered county-by-country in early August on eight countries, with Canada again in-focus. Secondly, it was announced that a new 50% tariff on copper products sent to the U.S. will be imposed on Aug. 1. The U.S. reportedly produces about 25% of the copper it consumes. The Administration also declared that tariffs will be forthcoming over the next year on pharmaceuticals coming into the country.
  2. Gold, the tariff escalation trade, sees higher prices. The price of gold bullion started this week at $3,337.15 per ounce. As of this writing on the late morning of July 11, the price of gold is up to $3,354.80 per ounce and global stocks are now lower for the week. Gold is considered the ‘escalation’ trade in the tariff discussions due to its role as a safe-haven asset and has come into the forefront of conversation. The White House came out with several new country-by-country reciprocal tariffs and gold trading is reacting to that.
  3. FOMC meeting minutes from June offer limited novel information. The minutes from their June meeting noted “a couple of participants” could be ready for a rate cut as early as their July 30 meeting, while “most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would be appropriate”. The group is still very divided on when, how much, and how long tariffs will impact inflation.

Economic Reports

  1. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reading for June showed 98.6, or right at expectation. This survey was taken before the Big Beautiful Bill passed Congress, so there is some intrigue to see what the reading is next month. The highest reading for this index so far in 2025 was 102.8 in January.
  2. Consumer Credit in May only rose by $5.1 billion, which was less than half the expectation. In detail, credit cards and other revolving balances declined by $3.5 billion in the month (first decrease since last November) while non-revolving debt for items such as vehicle purchases and school tuition rose by $8.6 billion. It is important to note that this report does not include mortgages.
  3. Wholesale Trade Sales for May fell by 0.3% from the prior month when an increase was expected. This is the lowest monthly number since January and would signal that retailers are demanding less product.
  4. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell slightly last week to 227,000 (on a weekly average of so far this year of 227,400), but Continuing Claims rose to 1.965 million. This is the highest Continuing Claims number since coming out of the Great Lockdown in 2021.

Markets this Week (mid-day Friday)

  1. U.S. Dollar Index is higher. DXY at 97.822 or +0.53% so far this week (1 yr. range = 96.776 to 109.956).
  2. Bond yields are higher. Two-year Treasury yield gains to 3.90%; the 10-year is up to 4.41%.
  3. Stocks are lower. All five of the major global stock indexes we track are now lower so far this week in downside trading today.
  4. Commodities are mixed. Three of the six sectors in the Bloomberg Commodity Index are higher so far this week (Livestock, Precious Metals and Energy).

Next Week

  1. Economic Reports
    • CPI, PPI, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, NAHB Homebuilder Index, Housing Starts, UofM Consumer Sentiment Index
      • U.S. consensus QoQ real GDP est.: Q1 = -0.5%, Q2 = +2.1%, Q3 = +0.8%, Q4 = +1.1%, Q1-2026 = +1.5%
      • U.S. consensus YoY inflation est.: Q1 = +2.7%, Q2 = +2.5%, Q3 = +3.1%, Q4 = +3.3%, Q1-2026 = +3.1%
  2. Earnings Reports (Q2-2025 quarterly earnings season begins July 15)
    • Q2-2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate at the beginning of the period = +2.79%
    • Q2-2025 S&P 500 summary to date: 19 reported; 68% beat estimate; YoY EPS = +2.8%
    • S&P 500 YoY EPS estimates: Q1-2025 = +13.5%, Q2-2025 = +2.5%, Q3-2025 = +6.7%, Q4-2025 = +6.2%, Q1-2026 = +9.4%
  3. Events
    • Central bank meetings in Indonesia
    • Quarterly earnings season begins

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